Is the SDA market actually turning a corner in 2026, or is that just hopeful spin from people with houses to sell? The headline says new supply is still growing. The March 2026 NDIA data underneath says that growth is collapsing while the demand that actually pays you is quietly rising. Both are true, and the gap between them is where the opportunity sits.
The short answer
Supply growth has roughly halved, from a 6.5% three-year average to 3.6% last quarter, and the pipeline of dwellings under construction fell 26.34% in a single quarter after a major lender pulled out of the market. Meanwhile the demand that matters most to investors, participants actually using their SDA, is growing at about 2% (2.12% last quarter), well above the flat 0.8% headline. SDA is also not the NDIS budget problem: the NDIA forecast roughly 25,985 participants by now and the actual figure came in at 25,633, almost exactly on track. For investors the takeaway is an old one, sharper than ever: where and what you build matters far more than the headline numbers.
SDA Market Update · March 2026 Quarter
New supply is slowing, the construction pipeline is shrinking, and the demand that actually matters is quietly creeping up. The March 2026 NDIA data tells a more interesting story than the headlines do.
That is the short version. The rest of this article shows the working, quarter by quarter. Every quarter the NDIA releases a fresh batch of numbers on the state of Specialist Disability Accommodation around the country. On their own, any single quarter's figures are about as exciting as they sound. String a few years of them together, though, and the pattern in the March 2026 NDIA quarterly data is hard to miss.
Three things stand out: supply growth is clearly slowing, the construction pipeline has fallen off a cliff, and real demand is stronger than the headline numbers let on. We have pulled the data into one interactive view so you can poke at it yourself. If you are weighing up a purchase, it pairs well with our approach to data-driven SDA location selection.
Interactive · tap a tab
The four numbers behind a shifting market
Source: NDIA quarterly SDA data to March 2026. Compiled by SDA Data.
SDA supply growth is slowing across Australia
The number of enrolled SDA dwellings has climbed steadily for years, from 7,720 back in March 2023 to 13,779 in March 2026. So far, so healthy. The catch is in the rate of that climb. The three-year average sat at a comfortable 6.5%. Over the past year it eased to 5.3%. Last quarter it slipped to 3.6%. The bars are still going up, but the steps between them are getting noticeably shorter.
The slowdown shows up in every state and territory, with the steepest falls in Tasmania and Western Australia. It is not evenly spread within states either. In Victoria, supply grew 5.5% over the quarter on average, yet 17 of 66 areas still managed growth above 10%. Most of those high-flyers were areas that were already oversupplied, which is a bit like adding a third coffee machine to a kitchen that already has two and no queue.
The SDA construction pipeline is falling off a cliff
If the enrolled-dwellings chart is a gentle slowdown, the construction pipeline is the part of the story that grabs you by the collar. A little over a year ago, one of the major lenders walked away from the SDA market. Finance for everyday investors dried up almost overnight, and a good number of the property promoters who had crowded into the space quietly packed up and left with it.
The numbers tell the tale. Reporting of dwellings under construction peaked across June 2024 to March 2025. Then the funding tap was turned down, and the pipeline followed. The total number of dwellings reported under construction fell by more than 26% in the most recent quarter alone, with houses doing most of the falling.
The "default" funding arrangement for participants now sits firmly at one-to-three (1:3). The trouble is that most SDA apartments were designed and priced around one-to-one (1:1) funding. Plenty of apartment investors have therefore been collecting less income than the brochure promised, which helps explain why new apartments under construction have thinned out.
Houses tell a related story. Much of the earlier boom in SDA houses landed in outer-suburban areas where land was cheap and plentiful. Perfect hunting ground for promoters, and unfortunately also areas that were already well and truly oversupplied. Once the finance disappeared, so did the promoters, and the number of houses reported under construction promptly fell through the floor.
Real SDA demand is quietly rising
Here is where a lot of market commentary goes wrong. The headline demand figure everyone quotes is the total number of participants with SDA in their plan, which has been almost perfectly flat: 46,104 in March 2023 and 46,107 three years later. Take that at face value and you would assume demand is going nowhere.
But having SDA funding in your plan and actually using it are two different things. The number that matters to an investor is participants who are genuinely drawing on their SDA, and that figure has climbed from 13,740 to 16,263 over the same period. Growth there ran at 2.12% last quarter, against a tired-looking 0.8% on the headline measure.
So the real growth in real demand for SDA rooms is closer to 2% than the 0.8% number doing the rounds. Not a boom, but a steady, genuine pull in the right direction while supply is heading the other way.
The whole picture, side by side
For three years, supply grew faster than demand and the market felt comfortable. That gap is now closing from both ends: demand growth is firming up (1.53% three-year average, 2.12% last quarter), current supply growth is fading (6.54% down to 3.62%), and the pipeline has gone properly negative (from +5.89% to -26.34%). When all three point the same way, it is worth paying attention.
Is SDA really part of the NDIS budget problem?
There has been plenty of noise about NDIS spending running over budget, driven mostly by the sheer number of people joining the scheme. SDA, for its part, has been a model citizen. Back in June 2023 the NDIA published a report titled Demand Projection, forecasting SDA demand to grow from 22,873 dwellings in June 2022 to 27,022 by 2027. On a straight-line basis that implies about 25,985 participants today. The actual March 2026 figure is 25,633, or 352 short of forecast. Not a bad effort from the forecasters, and clear evidence that SDA is not part of the budget problem.
What the March 2026 SDA market data means for investors
None of this is a crystal ball, and one quarter never makes a trend. But the direction of travel is hard to ignore. Supply growth has roughly halved from its three-year average, the construction pipeline is shrinking fast, much of the recent building went to the wrong places anyway, and the demand that actually counts is firming up. For anyone weighing the SDA market in 2026 on the evidence rather than the sales pitch, the lesson is an old one: where you build and what you build matters far more than the headline numbers. That is exactly the gap our SDA investment research is built to close.
SDA market 2026: your questions answered
Is SDA supply still growing in 2026?
Yes, but the rate is slowing sharply. National SDA supply growth has eased from a three-year average of about 6.5% to 3.6% in the most recent quarter, and the pipeline of dwellings reported under construction fell by more than 26% in the last quarter alone. Total enrolled dwellings still rose, from 7,720 in March 2023 to 13,779 in March 2026, but the pace is clearly cooling.
What is the real demand growth for SDA rooms?
The figure that matters for investors is the number of participants actually using their SDA funding, not the total number with SDA in their plan. On that basis, real demand is growing at roughly 2% (2.12% last quarter), well above the 0.8% headline figure. Participants drawing on their SDA rose from 13,740 to 16,263 over three years, while the "SDA in plan" total stayed almost flat at around 46,100.
Is SDA driving the NDIS budget over-run?
No. The NDIA's own 2023 Demand Projection implied about 25,985 SDA participants by now. The actual March 2026 figure of 25,633 is 352 below that forecast, so SDA demand has tracked projections closely and is not the source of NDIS budget pressure.
Why did the SDA construction pipeline fall so sharply?
Two reasons. First, a major lender withdrew from the SDA market just over a year ago, cutting finance for everyday investors and pushing many property promoters out of the sector. Second, the default funding arrangement for participants is now one-to-three (1:3), while most SDA apartments were designed around one-to-one (1:1) funding, so those apartments earn less than expected. Together these pushed the quarterly change in dwellings under construction to -26.34%.
What does this mean for SDA investors in 2026?
For three years supply grew faster than demand. That gap is now closing from both ends: demand is firming, current supply growth is fading, and the pipeline has turned negative. The data does not guarantee any outcome, but it reinforces that location and dwelling type matter more than headline numbers. Areas of verified unmet demand with little compliant new supply are where the opportunity is strongest.
This article is general information only and reflects SDA Data's analysis of publicly available NDIA quarterly data as at March 2026. It does not take into account your personal circumstances and is not financial, investment, taxation or legal advice. Figures are drawn from NDIA quarterly reporting and may be revised in later releases. Please seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision.
